Strong El Niño Could Increase Global Weather Risks Through 2027, WMO Warns

September 7, 2026 | Climate & Environment

The world’s weather systems could face increased pressure in the coming months as a strengthening El Niño event develops across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on September 3 that El Niño is already firmly established and is expected to strengthen further, potentially reaching very strong intensity later this year.

The organisation also forecasts an exceptionally high, nearly 100% probability that El Niño will continue through February 2027.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

Although it originates in the Pacific, its effects can influence atmospheric circulation and weather patterns around the world.

The strength and location of its impacts vary from one El Niño event to another.

Higher Risk of Extreme Weather

The WMO warns that a very strong El Niño can significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns.

Some regions may experience heavier rainfall and increased flood risks, while others can face drought and unusually high temperatures.

The effects can also influence agriculture, water resources, energy demand and public health.

Importantly, El Niño does not mean every location will experience the same weather. Local conditions depend on geography and other climate factors.

Food and Agriculture Concerns

Changes in rainfall and temperature can have significant consequences for farmers.

Drought can reduce crop yields and increase pressure on water supplies, while excessive rainfall can damage crops, soil and infrastructure.

The WMO has highlighted the importance of early warnings and preparedness, particularly for climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, water management and energy.

For countries already experiencing unusual weather, the strengthening El Niño could add another layer of uncertainty to seasonal planning.

What About Climate Change?

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change.

However, scientists and international organisations are examining how a warming planet may influence the intensity and consequences of individual El Niño events.

The combination of naturally occurring climate variability and long-term warming can create challenging conditions for communities already exposed to heat, drought, flooding and other weather extremes.

Preparing for the Months Ahead

The WMO is increasing cooperation with national meteorological and hydrological agencies to improve early-warning systems and preparedness.

Governments, farmers, businesses and communities can use seasonal forecasts to prepare for possible changes in rainfall, temperature and water availability.

The precise impacts will differ across regions, but the message from climate authorities is clear: early preparation can reduce the damage caused by extreme weather.

Key Facts

Climate pattern: El Niño
Current status: Established and strengthening
Expected persistence: Through February 2027
Main concern: Changes in rainfall and temperature patterns
Potential risks: Floods, drought, extreme heat and agricultural disruption
Source: World Meteorological Organization

Forecasts can change as new observations become available. Readers should follow their national meteorological agencies for local warnings and advisories.